Posted by
John of Arc on Wednesday, April 30, 2008 11:20:24 AM
With Obama imploding but still a cinch to win a majority of the elected delegates but not a majority of all delegates, the super-delegates have a problem. How can they hold the factions of the party together (not anger the Blacks), have a chance to win in November and, most importantly, maintain their positions of leadership within the party?
They can vote for Obama and watch him and Rev. Jeremiah Wright become more of a day-time soap opera and a late-night punch line. They can vote for Hillary Clinton and watch the African-American faction abstain in November or even instigate a rebellion.
This problem is also an opportunity for the super-delegates and is in fact their raison d'etat: Keep the party members from hurting themselves and keep the old guard in control of the party.
The super-delegates should agree in June to vote for Hillary as soon as she names an African-American as her VP. Some leading candidates would be Jesse Jackson Jr. (Congressman, IL), Deval Patrick (Governor, Massachusetts) and Harold Ford (former Congressman, Tennessee). All three are part of the next-generation, as is Barack Obama. Since Illinois and Massachusetts are already in the Democrat column for November, Ford makes more sense on that one measure. One footnote: The order of the announcements is important due to the inconstancy of the Clintons.
I suspect that by July African-Americans will have forgotten all about Obama, just about as quickly as he burst upon the scene and as quickly as Republicans have forgotten all about Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee. Their conventions in September will confirm the probity and finality of their selections of Clinton-Ford and McCain-whomever, two long months before the general election.
This arrangement between the super-delegates and the Clintons will keep the African-Americans in the party, give the Democrats a fighting chance in November and, most importantly, keep control of the party in their hands.